Complex Systems And Peacebuilding

Thanks to my old prof, Chip Hauss, whose organization Alliance for Peacebuilding hosted a workshop at Search for Common Ground, I was able to see Vermonter Louise Diamond present 12 Simple Rules of System Thinking for Complex Global Issues.  It was a 90 minute lecture, so obviously there's a lot of nuance, specifics and interaction missing here, but her handout was online so here's an excerpt that offers the basic gist (I modified the order slightly to be parallel to her most recent slide deck):

What follows are 12 basic concepts about living systems and their implications for policy considerations when dealing with some of our greatest and most difficult challenges. Each ‘therefore,’ though stated simply, can be expanded out to include several other key concepts and implications for action.

1. Living systems exist within their own unique context. For human systems, that context is the narrative that gives meaning to our choices and actions.

Therefore: Articulate, communicate, and validate the stories you tell yourself.

2. The parts of living systems cohere around a common shared purpose.

Therefore: Define and revisit goals and purpose.

These 2 rules made me consider our national myths that can fuel American exceptionalism as well as disempowerment.  The Revolution in a sense lets us be proud of how free our nation ostensibly is, making it the greatest country on earth...yet we can feel powerless because it took "great people" to rebel and this regime is worse than George III, etc.

So we need to think about our stories about the Revolution, the Peace Movement, even the Bush Era, and redefine our purposes if we're to accomplish anything constructive here at home or abroad.

3. In complex systems, all the elements or agents are interconnected, as in a giant web. They are also interdependent – what happens to one affects all others.

Therefore: Connect the disconnected.

This is one place I think Obama has done an excellent job, much to the consternation of some liberals, is try to build new bridges, or at least foster the potential.  Meeting with GOP leaders privately before the stimulus was passed, even inviting Warren to the Inaugural, all goes toward (re)connecting.  No guarantees about anything, but just as with canvassing during the campaign you aren't going to change any minds if you don't try to engage.

From a purely political POV, Obama's outreach has possibly fostered enough goodwill that he can on a regular basis get some of the "moderate" GOP Senators to vote his way as Collins, Snowe and Specter did in February, and at the very least really does push aside any complaints that he hasn't been bipartisan.

4. Complexity is the nature and condition of living systems and the world we live in. What we know about complex systems is that there are multiple agents or elements, combining and interacting in unpredictable and non-linear ways. This means decisions often lead to unintended consequences.

Therefore: Ground yourself in unpredictability.

The point here is that you must accept that there is unpredictability and ground yourself in that notion so you can at least be ready to adapt to the unexpected.  I haven't blogged about the Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing we attended today, but this certainly came to mind as I was listening to testimony from Zbigniew Brzezinski and Brent Scowcroft.  They both noted that military action against Iran would be inherently unpredictable, as would our political meddling, and fundamentally disastrous.  There is no need to unleash more unpredictability than already is inherent with any relationship between our countries.

5. In that giant web of interconnectedness, the points or nodes where the agents meet are the relationships, or opportunities for interaction. These interactions determine what will happen to the system. The nature and quality of these relationships, therefore, are critically important.

Therefore: Create conditions for quality engagements.

Howard Thurman immeditately leapt to mind: Take the initiative in seeking ways by which you can have the experience of a common sharing of mutual worth and value.

6. We know that all living systems exchange energy, matter, and information across their boundaries. At any time there can be imbalances in these flows, stuck places, over- or under-accumulation, etc.

Therefore: Re-balance the flows across boundaries.

7. All living systems develop patterns. Often these patterns are self-reinforcing and become deeply embedded and difficult to change. Many of these patterns in human systems are common and recognizable. Patterns also show up in similar forms at different scales or levels of the system.

Therefore: Re-pattern for sustainability and well-being of the whole.

8. We know from living systems that everything is a whole in itself and at the same time part of a larger whole.

Therefore: Attend to ever smaller parts and ever larger wholes.

9. Living systems self-organize through the interactions of their agents or parts. The basic format of that organization is networks – that is, groups of parts joined together in a de-centralized way for some period of time.

Therefore: Pay attention to emerging networks.

10. Systems move between various degrees of stability and instability, order and disorder. When the disorder, or chaos, becomes too great, things fall apart. When the order is too rigid, things cannot grow or develop. Yet a certain degree of instability, or the edge of chaos, can also be a powerful moment of creative change.

Therefore: Seek coherence within chaos.

I've always maintained that crisis creates opportunities. 

Usually I mention this in telecom classes when we're discussing new technologies.  VoIP is a good example in that it's a disruptive innovation that our customers viewed as a threat because it turned their existing business models upside down, while I told them they needed to embrace it as an opportunity because it was the wave of the future and offered them more potential services and revenue streams outside their stodgy old approaches.

So the current economic crisis, climate change, terrorism...those all suck, but if we want to take something positive out of them it could very well be they catalyze necessary change in our societies.  I'm thinking reducing our consumerism in the US, but I'm sure there are other systemic changes nationally and globally that can be made.  Maybe that helps deal with our issues with Iran?

11. All living systems exist within a single field of potential, where the observer is a player, our thoughts have consequences, and creative solutions emerge.

Therefore: Play the Field.

12. Living systems are learning systems. That is, they adapt from the feedback they receive from their internal and external environments.

Therefore: Learn and change from inner and outer messages.

One of the greatest things that makes me optimistic about Obama is his clear ability to listen thoughtfully.  I was thinking about that today in the hearing when I realized that Zbig and Scowcroft were fairly sober people who appear to have learned a lot from their successes as well as failures--they accept feedback from the system--and that Obama will certainly consider what they have to say about changing our posture regarding Iran, getting Russia on board as we change policies about the missile shield, etc.

Last night at potluck another example was provided during announcements.  There was a rally scheduled next week regarding AIDS policy where activists were going to unveil their "50 day report card".  when the Obama team found out they were going to get Fs, they called the organizers to ask what they could do to not get bad grades and proposed they meet to discuss the issues.  That never happened during the Bush Era.

As Louise said at the outset, there wasn't anything that the audience probably didn't already know on some level, but we might notice new connections and see the comprehensive whole as it's presented in a systematized way.  From the meeting and chatting with other people, I also learned new concepts like appreciative inquiry, open space [no, not 'source'] technology, and various approaches to teaching conflict resolution.  It was all fascinating and very valuable, and I will definitely be applying these rules as I explore new ways to build peace.

ntodd

Comments

[Karin]

Sounds like you're having a productive week. Too much stuff there to digest in one reading-but regarding Obama's "bipartisan" tactics, the New Yorker called it playing Gandhian hardball.

[Xan]

This sounds like a translation of Gregory Bateson's work into, like, intelligible English.

I tried to read his "A Pattern Language" onetime and got lost about three paragraphs in. But I think his stuff was along these lines.

This was worth reading if only for the line "Ground yourself in unpredictability." We have a family joke/saying, when something unpredicted, out of the ordinary (and usually unpleasant) occurs, especially at an excessively early hour of the morning: "Respect my rut!"

Lotsa ruts are gonna be disrespected in days to come.....